Thaksin Expected to Beat Royal Defamation Charge

The June 19 indictment of kingmaker and former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra on a charge of defaming the country’s monarchy in 2016 has been rumored in the Thai capital for months, with some analysts expressing concern that the 11-party power-sharing arrangement he produced from behind the scenes last year following a political stalemate after the May 14, 2023 general elections might come apart, with Thaksin and his Pheu Thai Party as casualties.

However, Thaksin is reportedly confident that the indictment doesn’t signal another demise, expecting because of his release on bail and his earlier royal pardon to easily weather the storm, which is believed to have been fomented by the military and oligarchic diehards whose stranglehold on the country’s politics is slipping as Thaksin outmaneuvers them in parliament.

Thaksin isn’t allowed to travel out of Thailand unless approved by the court, and his passport was confiscated, but he isn’t likely to anyway, given that he was in New York at a meeting of the United Nations General Assembly when junta commander Sonthi Boonyaratglin led the 2006 coup that ended democracy and pitched the country into turmoil that lasted until the 2023 elections – hopefully – despite periodic returns to elected government.

The lèse-majesté charge relates to a statement Thaksin made to a newspaper in Seoul while a fugitive from Thai criminal charges, alleging that members of the royal privy court – read the late Privy Counselor Prem Tinsulanonda – were behind the 2014 coup that ousted the democratically elected surrogate government of his younger sister Ying­luck. When he returned to the country last year from his longtime perch in Dubai, police presented the arrest warrant to the Department of Corrections and sought his detention. He was informed of the lèse-majesté charge and a related computer crime charge in January. It has been hanging fire for the past six months while Thaksin denied the charges and petitioned for fair treatment.

It is easy to see why the military, which has in effect been the power behind the scenes in the country since the 1932 coup that ended the absolute monarchy, would once again seek to oust Thaksin from power with the help of the royalist elites, who fear his populist appeal to the broad masses in the countryside. Since his return to Thailand last August, Thaksin has been building a formidable political machine that would shield him and his Pheu Thai Party from any untoward incidents, according to a well-informed diplomatic source. The new Senate, to be constituted next month, will be under his control with his brother-in-law Somchai Wongsawat, an ally who served briefly in a Thaksin surrogate government in 2008, as its leader.

Likewise, Srettha Thavisin, the wealthy real estate magnate, prime minister, and legislative leader of Thaksin’s Pheu Thai Party, faces an ethics charge in the Constitutional Court after 40 members of the departing 250-member Senate, which was controlled by the military, petitioned to have him removed. But while the court, the nation’s highest, accepted the petition, it didn’t force Srettha’s suspension while the charges were being investigated, an indication that he and Thaksin are confident of the outcome.

As Asia Sentinel reported on May 14, the cabinet reshuffle that Thaksin engineered gives him the expectation to ensure dominance in politics for years to come. The youth-oriented Move Forward Party, which shocked everybody including Thaksin by winning 151 seats in the 500-member House of Representatives to 141 for Pheu Thai, appears increasingly likely to be dissolved by the Constitutional Court. The status of its youthful leader Pita Limjaroenrat has been voided and the party is likely to follow Future Forward, a similarly charismatic party, into oblivion, to the outrage and frustration of millions of youthful voters demanding change. They see Thaksin and Pheu Thai, who have committed to doing nothing about the onerous lèse-majesté law and other civil liberties restrictions, as part of the problem.

In the reshuffle, Thaksin placed his allies in important positions in the multi-polar government coalition. But equally important, the machinations were designed to weaken the former government post-coup coalition led by former prime minister and coup leader Prayuth Chan-ocha, the leader of United Thai Nation Party, and his wingman Deputy PM Prawit Wongsuwan, the leader of the Palang Pracharat Party, and was a move to reclaim lost ground resulting from the coup of 2014 led by Prayuth as well as from the 2023 election victory by the upstart Move Forward Party. Ministers from UTNP and PPP were relegated to less important ministerial posts and were forced to work under the Deputy PM from Pheu Thai.

Chief among those in an enhanced position was Thaksin’s most trusted Pheu Thai ally, Phumtham Wechayachai, who not only retained his commerce ministry portfolio but continued as deputy premier overseeing important ministries such as defense, agriculture and cooperatives, digital, the Prime Minister’s Office, and the Public Relations Department. Phumtham also serves as acting PM in case Srettha is out of the country. Phumtham is regarded as the most authoritative cabinet minister apart from Srettha.

Moreover, former Thai Rak Thai Party politicians who were former close colleagues were given important tasks. That included Suriya Juangroongruangkit (uncle of Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit, leader of the now-defunct Future Forward Party) who serves as Deputy PM and oversees tourism, communications and transport, culture, and public health. Another former Thaksin colleague, Somsak Thepsuthin, was promoted to deputy premier replacing Parnpree Bahiddha-nukara, who doubled as foreign minister. The new foreign minister is now Maris Sangiampongsa, an obsequious former career diplomat who will obediently carry out Thaksin’s directives. 

Pichai Chunhavajira, formerly Chairman of the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) was named finance minister to face-off the recalcitrant Bank of Thailand over matters including the regulation of interest rates and to push Pheu Thai’s populist policy creating a “Digital Wallet” which he hopes would be a potential vote-getter as it has already gained traction with the people who hope to get a cash handout of THB10,000 (US$273) from this policy and who remember the populist policies that won Thaksin a widespread following before he was deposed in the 2006 military coup that led to his self-exile.