Mexico City, Mexico — The Sinaloa Cartel, one of the largest drug trafficking organizations in the Western Hemisphere, is in a violent transition stage. As a new generation of capos is vying to control the Cartel, its home state of Sinaloa, Mexico has been subjected to a fierce war threatening to expand throughout the country.
Sinaloa Cartel co-founder Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada was arrested on July 25 in El Paso, Texas alongside Joaquín Guzmán López, the son of his former associate, Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzmán Loera, who is serving a life sentence in the United States. The 76-year-old kingpin was allegedly tricked into boarding a plane to the US.
El Mayo’s arrest would pose an opportunity for El Chapo’s other sons, known as “Los Chapitos,” to consolidate control. Infighting broke out between different factions, which has so far resulted in 70 murders and 52 disappearances throughout September.
“It suggests that the truce between both factions of the Sinaloa Cartel is ending,” David Saucedo, a security analyst, told Aztec Reports.
“Both have men, weapons, ammunition, funded campaigns, governors and mayors operating in their favor, as well as police and members of the military. Both factions have the capital and resources to engage in an endless civil war,” he said.
Not a Cartel, a Federation
The key to the Sinaloa Cartel’s strength is also its greatest weakness, as its non-pyramidal power structure has left the cartel vulnerable to violent power grabs among its different clans and associates.
Experts have called the Sinaloa Cartel “The Federation” as its structure comprises different organizations working together and sharing the market, each with their territories and personal armies; this has enabled it to expand its power and push its competitors out.
For a long time, the Federation led the market through the leadership of Zambada and Guzmán Loera, both maintaining a relatively amicable relationship.
With the arrest and extradition to the US of El Chapo in 2017, the organization began to change its power dynamics.
“El Chapo provided a balancing leadership within the Sinaloa Cartel. Without him, the Chapitos, with their inexperience and desire to conquer the world—typical of youth—made a series of decisions that gradually distanced them from Mayo Zambada, who is more of an old-school narco,” explained Saucedo.
According to a US Drug Enforcement Administration’s (DEA) report, there are currently four main leaders that control the Sinaloa Cartel: El Mayo Zambada, Aureliano “El Guano” Guzman-Loera (Chapo’s brother), Rafael Caro Quintero and Los Chapitos.
However, with Caro Quintero currently under Mexican custody since his arrest in 2022 and El Guano being a meager force within the Federation, the strength of the Cartel remains divided between Zambada loyalists and Chapo’s heirs.
“What we have are two different mafias operating under the banner of the Sinaloa cartel, but they have generational differences in direction, perspective, and objectives. They also have different political connections and military protection rings. And, of course, each group occupies specific territories.
While both factions share territories in Mexico’s northwest in Baja California, Sonora, Sinaloa, and Durango, organized crime watchdogs such as Lantia Intelligence have detailed just how much the influence of both factions differs.
According to the maps shared on X by Lantia Intelligence director Eduardo Guerrero, Zambada’s grip reaches over more states than the Chapitos, including outside of the northwest in Zacatecas, Jalisco, Querétaro, Guanajuato and Michoacán.
The Chapitos, on the other hand, have expanded their operations beyond central Mexico and even in the southeast but in fewer states, in Estado de México, Ciudad de México, Morelos, and Quintana Roo.
For Saucedo, the territorial advantage and experience held by the Zambada faction does not entail a defeat for the Chapitos, especially if they can broker an alliance with longtime rivals such as the New Generation Jalisco Cartel (CJNG).
“This doesn’t mean that the Chapitos will be an easy target for Mayo Zambada; on the contrary, it’s reasonable to assume that if the Jalisco Cartel intervenes in this internal fracture of the Sinaloa Cartel, it would operate in favor of the Chapitos,” Saucedo said.
Meanwhile in the U.S.
Just two weeks after his apparent surrender to US authorities, Zambada made a staggering revelation when he said that the 38-year-old son of El Chapo, Joaquín Gúzman López, had kidnapped him and placed him in a private plane to hand him over to the US government.
Some speculate that Gúzman López had arranged the capture of his father’s longtime partner by US security agencies in exchange for a better deal with prosecutors. However, in doing so, his brothers south of the border would be forced to unleash bloodshed in their home state.
“The Chapitos are a more violent faction and are in a hurry to make more money, expand drug trafficking routes, and confront the authorities,” said Saucedo.
Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador has condemned the US government for brokering a deal with the Chapitos, partially blaming them for causing the wave of violence currently taking hold of Sinaloa.
According to Saucedo, the Mexican president’s criticisms are not entirely unjustified. However, Mexico’s lack of concrete actions to take down the Sinaloa Cartel, which the U.S. has pointed out as the main driver of fentanyl consumption in their country, could have pushed US agencies to act outside of Mexico’s knowledge.
“I understand the Americans, without justifying them, that they felt the need to tighten the screws because the Mexican government had resisted carrying out any operations against the Sinaloa Cartel. I’m clear on that as well. So both governments have some truth and blame,” he said.
The Mexican government has insisted that the US has made a deal with the Chapitos and turned El Chapo into a protected witness alongside his younger brother Ovidio Gúzman Loera, who was extradited to the US in January 2023.
Nevertheless, the US ambassador to Mexico, Ken Salazar, has denied these allegations. Meanwhile, El Chapo and El Mayo have pleaded not guilty to all charges.
Outside of diplomatic frictions, the two remaining Chapitos, Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar and Jesús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar continue their violent siege on Sinaloa, which could potentially expand throughout the country.
“There may be an increase in homicide-related violence in other regions of the country where there are cells of the Chapitos and Mayo,” said Saucedo