The appointment on Thursday of Muhammad Mustafa as the new prime minister of the Palestinian Authority was supposed to be a nod to international demands for a more technocratic and less corrupt administration.
But Mr. Mustafa, 69, who was appointed by Mahmoud Abbas, the president of the authority, seems destined to fall short of producing the “revitalized Palestinian Authority” that President Biden has called for, several analysts said in interviews Thursday. A senior adviser to the president, Mr. Mustafa represents neither a break with the past nor a threat to the power wielded by Mr. Abbas, who at 88 is widely unpopular among Palestinians, particularly since the outbreak of the war in Gaza.
“There won’t be any actual change,” said Nasser al-Qudwa, a former foreign minister of the Palestinian Authority who fell out with Mr. Abbas. “The situation will remain just as it has been. The decision maker won’t change.”
Mr. Mustafa, an economist who has worked for the World Bank and heads the Palestine Investment Fund, must name a new government over the next few weeks, which analysts say will provide a better indication of whether he plans significant changes. Particularly critical, they say, will be the choices for ministers of the interior, finance and foreign affairs, all of whom are close to the authority’s president.
Mr. Abbas, known as Abu Mazen, has kept his post under various previous prime ministers despite having been elected only to a four-year term in 2005.
His critics are skeptical that Mr. Mustafa will be a significant improvement in the running of the Palestinian Authority, which has limited governing powers in the Israeli-occupied West Bank and is dominated by Mr. Abbas’s Fatah faction. It lost control of Gaza to Hamas when its forces were routed in a brief civil war in 2007.
Mouin Rabbani, an expert on Palestinian politics, said that Mr. Mustafa’s appointment was a retreat from the goal of a reunified Palestinian Authority that could have the backing of Hamas, which has earned significant popularity and credibility among Palestinians through its war against Israel.
To create a Palestinian Authority “that enjoys sufficient credibility in both Gaza and the West Bank, it must come from a consensus between the Palestinian Authority and Hamas,” he said. “And I’ve seen no indication that the process leading to his appointment is being driven by Palestinians, but by foreign powers, either regional or international.”
Mr. Rabbani added that elections, if they were held now, would heavily favor Hamas and would undermine the reconciliation among Palestinian factions that must take place before the formation of a new Palestinian Authority with the credibility to run both the West Bank and Gaza after the war ends.
Better to form a new government “on the basis of agreement and consensus by all Palestinian factions,” including Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Mr. Rabbani said.
Israel and the United States have been pressing for a new government that explicitly excludes Hamas and Islamic Jihad. But senior members of Fatah acknowledge that for the faction’s own credibility, some accommodation or even power-sharing with Hamas will be required — a position favored by the jailed Palestinian leader Marwan Barghouti.
An Abbas associate with international credibility like Mr. Mustafa “is precisely what Washington wants,” Mr. Rabbani said. “They are operating on the mistaken assumption that the P.A. can win credibility by doing what it does now but more efficiently, losing sight of the real basis of legitimacy, which can only be achieved by the Palestinians themselves.”
Ali Jarbawi, a political science professor at Birzeit University, said Mr. Mustafa’s ability to succeed in Gaza would depend on achieving understandings with Hamas, which still has a significant presence in the enclave five months into the war. “It won’t be able to do anything in Gaza without Hamas’s OK,” he said.
The government, Mr. Jarbawi said, was also desperately in need of a major injection of foreign aid. “Without money, the government won’t be able to provide for the public, including paying the full salaries of its employees,” he said. “It needs help from the outside world.”
Kayed Meari, a founder of a Palestinian research institution called the Witness Center for Citizen Rights and Social Development, said that Mr. Mustafa “is a good choice in terms of the concept of gradual change to the Palestinian Authority system” but that he would not bring about “core changes.”
“The citizens in general look at him as a continuation of Abu Mazen’s regime,” Mr. Meari said. But the situation for Palestinians is so dismal now, he added, that if Mr. Mustafa can at least restore full payment of salaries to government employees or establish at least a symbolic Palestinian Authority stamp on humanitarian aid to Gaza, he would gain popularity, at least in the short run.
Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos in January, Mr. Mustafa mostly blamed Israel for the authority’s problems, saying that while “the Palestinian Authority can do better in terms of building institutions,” it is “hard to do it under occupation.”
He added that after the Gaza war, “if Israel commits to a serious process where the terms are clear and acceptable, we will reciprocate” to build a “safe, secure and prosperous” independent Palestinian state, so “our people will live in dignity and avoid any need for war again.”
As for Hamas, he said that all Palestinians were welcome to join the Palestine Liberation Organization as long as they recognized its previous accords, including acceptance of Israel’s right to exist, repeating a longstanding Fatah position. “I would like to see and unite all Palestinians around this agenda,” he said.
That appears to be out of reach at this point, given Hamas’s stated desire to destroy the state of Israel.
Adam Sella contributed reporting.