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One had long been predicted. The second, on the other side of the Channel, was unexpected. In the space of a few days, two of Europe’s major democracies saw left-wing victories at the ballot box.
In the United Kingdom, Keir Starmer’s Labour Party returned to power with a massive majority in the House of Commons (411 seats out of 650) after 14 years in opposition. In France, following the second round of legislative elections, the New Popular Front (NFP), which includes Jean-Luc Mélenchon‘s La France Insoumise, the Socialists, the Greens and the Communist Party, emerged as the largest group in the new National Assembly with 182 seats (out of 577).
On paper, these results appear to be good news for the European Union. Keir Starmer, who voted to remain in the EU in 2016, immediately indicated that he will seek dialogue with Brussels to ease relations after Brexit.
He also put an end to the “Rwanda plan” for the expulsion of asylum seekers, which had served as an inspiration for Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, who is now working to open reception and detention centres in Albania. The EU now appears to be on the verge of endorsing this model as a way to manage migration.
As for France, the success of the NFP follows the Republican Front which, thanks to strategic candidate withdrawals by centrists, the right and the left in the second round of voting, prevented the far right of Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella from gaining a majority (just 143 seats, despite a score of 33 percent in the first round). The Rassemblement National’s programme, which included the primacy of national law over European law, and questioning France’s contribution to the European budget, would have run the risk of a quiet “Frexit”. There were also serious concerns about the weakening of French and European support for Ukraine.
The fact remains that the victory of the left in London and Paris is not likely to give the European project any real boost. Although a clear majority of Britons now consider Brexit to have been a failure, the new occupant of Downing Street does not appear ready to suggest a return to the EU family. Nor does Starmer envisage participation in the single market or the customs union, which would mean respecting the EU’s trade policies.
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